Correspondences · Observatoire des phénomènes naturels

Correspondences

What is linked, what is not

Each arc joins two phenomena tested on this site. Green and animated: clear link (correlation significant at 5 % after correcting for autocorrelation, or a response outside chance in an event study). Grey: inconclusive test. A statistical link alone does not establish causation.

Clear link
Inconclusive

Hypotheses tested

Clear links

correlation p < 0.05 or epochs outside chance

Causation demonstrated

a correlation demonstrates none

Arc width from |r| of the stored result; several tests between the same phenomena are drawn as stacked arcs.

Each page compares two observatory series under a hypothesis taken from the literature. Results are computed on the server from the imported data (import run identifiers recorded), with their confidence interval, effective number of points and references. A correlation, however strong, does not establish causation.

X flares and geomagnetic storms

The Earth responds two to three days later

484 events · Clear effect · computed on 10/23/26

Sun and geomagnetic storms

Storms follow the solar cycle

ρ = 0.77 · r = 0.76 [0.59 ; 0.87] · computed on 10/23/26

The 27-day recurrence

Geomagnetic activity follows the Sun’s rotation

r = 0.12 [0.00 ; 0.00] · computed on 10/23/26

El Niño and global temperature

The planet warms a few months later

r = 0.49 [0.38 ; 0.57] · computed on 10/23/26

El Niño and the CO₂ growth rate

CO₂ rises faster after El Niño

r = 0.52 [0.38 ; 0.62] · computed on 10/23/26

El Niño and sea level

The sea rises with El Niño, falls with La Niña

r = 0.46 [0.29 ; 0.62] · computed on 10/23/26

Volcanoes and temperature

Cooling after large eruptions

r = -0.27 [-0.36 ; -0.15] · 14 events · computed on 10/23/26

El Niño and length of day

Atmospheric angular momentum slows the Earth

r = 0.45 [0.35 ; 0.56] · computed on 10/23/26

Geomagnetic jerks and length of day

Two signatures of the core

5 events · computed on 10/23/26

Tides and earthquakes

Does the lunar phase trigger earthquakes?

p_min = 0.017 · computed on 10/23/26

Sun and earthquakes

No relation expected

ρ = -0.30 · r = -0.36 [-0.61 ; 0.06] · computed on 10/23/26

Geomagnetic storms and earthquakes

Do storms trigger earthquakes?

288 events · No effect detected · computed on 10/23/26

Halo CMEs and geomagnetic storms

Fast halos hit the Earth two days later

389 events · Clear effect · computed on 10/23/26

El Niño and Atlantic hurricanes

El Niño holds back the hurricane season

r = -0.35 [-0.54 ; -0.15] · computed on 10/23/26

Atlantic oscillation and hurricanes

A warm Atlantic, active decades

r = 0.48 [0.32 ; 0.62] · computed on 10/23/26

Sun and hurricanes

No robust link with the solar cycle

ρ = -0.10 · r = -0.20 [-0.30 ; 0.09] · computed on 10/23/26

Reading this result

Correlation is not causation: common factors (seasons, cycles, trends) or coincidence can produce it. The p-values account for autocorrelation (effective n) but not for preprocessing choices; the confidence interval comes from a block bootstrap. The limits of the source data apply.

Correspondences Cross-analyses between phenomena, with their significance and references.