Correspondences

What is linked, what is not

Each arc joins two phenomena tested on this site. Green and animated: clear link (correlation significant at 5 % after correcting for autocorrelation, or a response outside chance in an event study). Grey: inconclusive test. A statistical link alone does not establish causation.

Clear link
Inconclusive

Hypotheses tested

Clear links

correlation p < 0.05 or epochs outside chance

Causation demonstrated

a correlation demonstrates none

Arc width from |r| of the stored result; several tests between the same phenomena are drawn as stacked arcs.

Hypothesis tested: During La Niña rain moves from the ocean to the continents (Australia, Amazonia) and global mean sea level drops by a few millimetres; El Niño does the opposite (Boening et al., 2012).

Pearson correlation r (lag 2 month(s))

0.46

95% interval [0.29; 0.62] (block bootstrap)

Aligned points

385

effective n ≈ 68 (autocorrelation)

p-value

0.00007

two-sided, Fisher z transform, effective n

Period analysed

1992-12 → 2025-02

computed on Oct 23, 2026 · engine v1.0

Aligned series (standard deviations, after preprocessing)

Show the data as a table

Both series are drawn in standard-deviation units (z) after removing the seasonal cycle and slow variations, to compare their fluctuations; original values are in the table and the CSV export.

Correlation by lag (month(s))

Show the data as a table

Pearson coefficient for each lag; a positive lag means the second series follows the first. The table gives n, effective n and p for each lag.

Aligned series (CSV)

Method and sources

NOAA STAR global mean sea level (altimetry) aggregated by month and deseasonalised; both series go through a 5-year high-pass filter to remove the underlying rise. Pearson correlation for lags of −12 to +12 months, Bretherton et al. effective size, 12-month block bootstrap.

Computation parameters

{
    "max_lag": 12,
    "bootstrap": {
        "seed": 20261023,
        "block": 12,
        "draws": 1000
    },
    "statistic": "pearson",
    "deseasonalize": "monthly climatology (sea level)",
    "high_pass_months": 60
}

Inputs : cpc.oni.monthly (920 pts, run #13) · star.gmsl.10day (1,456 pts, run #50)

Reading this result

The altimetry record covers only three decades: the confidence interval stays wide. The 2011 drop, during a strong La Niña, is the clearest example. Correlation is not causation: common factors (seasons, cycles, trends) or coincidence can produce it. The p-values account for autocorrelation (effective n) but not for preprocessing choices; the confidence interval comes from a block bootstrap. The limits of the source data apply.

SOURCES OF THIS PAGE

Oceanic Niño Index (NOAA CPC): NOAA CPC, Oceanic Niño Index (ONI): 3-month running mean of ERSSTv5 SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region, centred 30-year base periods updated every 5 years. · source page ↗
Licence : U.S. Government work, public domain · retrieved on Oct 23, 2026 · SHA-256 5d6fa3a2f857…
Global mean sea level from satellite altimetry (NOAA STAR LSA): NOAA/NESDIS/STAR Laboratory for Satellite Altimetry, global mean sea level anomaly from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1/2/3 and Sentinel-6MF (66°S–66°N, seasonal signals removed, no GIA correction). · source page ↗
Licence : U.S. Government work, public domain; acknowledge NOAA/NESDIS/STAR LSA altimetry · retrieved on Oct 23, 2026 · SHA-256 539ecde7a3e9…
Boening et al. (2012): Boening, C., Willis, J. K., Landerer, F. W., Nerem, R. S., & Fasullo, J. (2012). The 2011 La Niña: so strong, the oceans fell. Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L19602. · doi:10.1029/2012GL053055
Licence : Published literature; cited

El Niño and sea level The sea rises with El Niño, falls with La Niña

What is linked, what is not