Space weather · aurora
The auroral oval
Each bright point is a 1° cell where the NOAA OVATION model estimates a probability of visible aurora for the next 30 to 90 minutes. Colour goes from green (low) to red (high).
- Northern maximum
- —
- Southern maximum
- —
- Low (< 30 %)
- Medium
- High (> 70 %)
Forecast valid at
2026-10-23 15:43:00 UTC
Latest estimated Kp (SWPC)
2.33
Highest forecast Kp (3 days)
3.67
NOAA SWPC OVATION aurora nowcast · U.S. Government work, public domain · 10/23/26
OVATION Prime (NOAA SWPC), cells ≥ 3 %; in daylight the aurora is there but not visible.
Kp index, observed and forecast
NOAA SWPC planetary K index: observed, estimated and 3-day forecast · U.S. Government work, public domain · 10/23/26
Show the data as a table
Where to see an aurora by Kp (northern hemisphere)
| Kp | Lowest magnetic latitude | Examples |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | ≈ 62° | Northern Scandinavia, Iceland, northern Canada and Alaska |
| 5 | ≈ 56° | Scotland, southern Scandinavia, northern United States |
| 7 | ≈ 51° | Northern France and Germany, Ireland, central United States |
| 9 | ≈ 45° | Southern France, northern Spain, southern United States (extreme storms) |
Method and sources
The OVATION grid (1° × 1°) is imported every hour; only cells of at least 3 % are kept and drawn on the globe. The Kp forecast comes from the NOAA 3-Day Geomagnetic Forecast.
Reading these data
A high probability does not guarantee a visible aurora: clouds, light pollution and the Moon matter too. The model relies on the solar wind measured an hour before it arrives.
SOURCES OF THIS PAGE
- NOAA SWPC OVATION aurora nowcast
-
NOAA SWPC, OVATION Prime aurora forecast (30 to 90 minutes ahead), probability of visible aurora on a 1° grid.
· source page ↗
Licence : U.S. Government work, public domain · retrieved on Oct 23, 2026 · SHA-256 3209a9b7e2c5… - NOAA SWPC planetary K index: observed, estimated and 3-day forecast
-
NOAA SWPC, Planetary K-index observed, estimated and predicted (3-hourly).
· source page ↗
Licence : U.S. Government work, public domain · retrieved on Oct 23, 2026 · SHA-256 c8b140fbc9ea…