Correspondences

What is linked, what is not

Each arc joins two phenomena tested on this site. Green and animated: clear link (correlation significant at 5 % after correcting for autocorrelation, or a response outside chance in an event study). Grey: inconclusive test. A statistical link alone does not establish causation.

Clear link
Inconclusive

Hypotheses tested

Clear links

correlation p < 0.05 or epochs outside chance

Causation demonstrated

a correlation demonstrates none

Arc width from |r| of the stored result; several tests between the same phenomena are drawn as stacked arcs.

Hypothesis tested: Links between solar activity and seismicity are regularly proposed; rigorous statistical analyses find none that is significant (Love & Thomas, 2013).

Spearman correlation ρ

-0.30

95% interval [-0.61; 0.06] (block bootstrap)

Pearson correlation r (lag -1 year(s))

-0.36

at the strongest lag

Aligned points

effective n ≈ 17 (autocorrelation)

p-value

0.157

two-sided, Fisher z transform, effective n

Period analysed

1973 → 2025

computed on Oct 23, 2026 · engine v1.0

Aligned series (standard deviations, after preprocessing)

Show the data as a table

Both series are drawn in standard-deviation units (z) after removing the seasonal cycle and slow variations, to compare their fluctuations; original values are in the table and the CSV export.

Correlation by lag (year(s))

Show the data as a table

Pearson coefficient for each lag; a positive lag means the second series follows the first. The table gives n, effective n and p for each lag.

Aligned series (CSV)

Method and sources

Yearly number of M ≥ 6 earthquakes in the USGS catalogue since 1973 (global completeness) against the yearly sunspot number. Spearman correlation with a 3-year block bootstrap, Pearson correlation for lags from −3 to +3 years, effective n accounting for autocorrelation.

Computation parameters

{
    "max_lag": 3,
    "bootstrap": {
        "seed": 20261023,
        "block": 3,
        "draws": 1000,
        "statistic": "spearman"
    },
    "from_year": 1973,
    "min_magnitude": 6
}

Inputs : silso.ssn.yearly (326 pts, run #49) · usgs.earthquakes.m6.yearly (127 pts, run #158)

Reading this result

With about fifty years and autocorrelated counts, only a strong relation would be detectable; a confidence interval containing zero means “no effect demonstrated”, which is the expected result. Correlation is not causation: common factors (seasons, cycles, trends) or coincidence can produce it. The p-values account for autocorrelation (effective n) but not for preprocessing choices; the confidence interval comes from a block bootstrap. The limits of the source data apply.

SOURCES OF THIS PAGE

SILSO yearly mean total sunspot number V2.0: SILSO World Data Center. The International Sunspot Number, V2.0. Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels. · source page ↗
Licence : CC BY-NC 4.0 · retrieved on Oct 23, 2026 · SHA-256 0ccb2104b03f…
USGS ComCat earthquakes M ≥ 4.5 (FDSN event service): U.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Hazards Program (2017). Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) Comprehensive Catalog of Earthquake Events and Products. Accessed through the FDSN event web service. · doi:10.5066/F7MS3QZH · source page ↗
Licence : U.S. Government work, public domain; cite USGS ANSS ComCat · retrieved on Oct 23, 2026 · SHA-256 c1e3c08c2c8f…
Love et al. (2013): Love, J. J., & Thomas, J. N. (2013). Insignificant solar-terrestrial triggering of earthquakes. Geophysical Research Letters, 40(6), 1165–1170. · doi:10.1002/grl.50211
Licence : Published literature; cited

Sun and earthquakes No relation expected

What is linked, what is not