Correspondences

What is linked, what is not

Each arc joins two phenomena tested on this site. Green and animated: clear link (correlation significant at 5 % after correcting for autocorrelation, or a response outside chance in an event study). Grey: inconclusive test. A statistical link alone does not establish causation.

Clear link
Inconclusive

Hypotheses tested

Clear links

correlation p < 0.05 or epochs outside chance

Causation demonstrated

a correlation demonstrates none

Arc width from |r| of the stored result; several tests between the same phenomena are drawn as stacked arcs.

Hypothesis tested: Ozone destruction cools the Antarctic stratosphere in spring; the polar vortex strengthens and the effect descends to the surface in summer: the Southern Annular Mode turns more positive and the westerlies move closer to Antarctica (Thompson and Solomon, 2002).

Pearson correlation r (lag 0 year(s))

0.43

95% interval [0.18; 0.60] (block bootstrap)

Aligned points

effective n ≈ 36 (autocorrelation)

p-value

0.007

two-sided, Fisher z transform, effective n

r after a 21-year high-pass filter

0.27

p = 0.066, effective N ≈ 46: year-to-year variations only

Period analysed

1979 → 2025

computed on Oct 25, 2026 · engine v1.0

Aligned series (standard deviations, after preprocessing)

Show the data as a table

Both series are drawn in standard-deviation units (z) after removing the seasonal cycle and slow variations, to compare their fluctuations; original values are in the table and the CSV export.

Correlation by lag (year(s))

Show the data as a table

Pearson coefficient for each lag; a positive lag means the second series follows the first. The table gives n, effective n and p for each lag.

Aligned series (CSV)

Method and sources

Mean ozone hole area from 7 September to 13 October (NASA Ozone Watch); monthly AAO from CPC, mean of the following December–February. Lag fixed (summer following the spring); Pearson, effective size after Bretherton et al., 3-year block bootstrap. The test is repeated after removing variations slower than 21 years: both series rose together until about 2000, and only the year-to-year part tests the direct influence.

Computation parameters

{
    "x": "mean ozone hole area, 7 September – 13 October (NASA Ozone Watch)",
    "y": "mean AAO of the following December–February (NOAA CPC)",
    "lag": "fixed at 0 (summer following the spring)",
    "bootstrap": {
        "seed": 20261023,
        "block": 3,
        "draws": 1000
    },
    "high_pass_years": 21
}

Inputs : nasa.ozone.hole.area.yearly (46 pts, run #3720) · cpc.aao.monthly (573 pts, run #3692)

Reading this result

The raw correlation is clear, but it comes mostly from the common trends of the 1980s–1990s (ozone destruction and drift of the annular mode), which models largely attribute to ozone. From one year to the next the link is weaker and borderline significant: the atmosphere’s own variability and greenhouse gases also play a part (Bandoro et al., 2014). Correlation is not causation: common factors (seasons, cycles, trends) or coincidence can produce it. The p-values account for autocorrelation (effective n) but not for preprocessing choices; the confidence interval comes from a block bootstrap. The limits of the source data apply.

SOURCES OF THIS PAGE

Antarctic ozone hole, yearly area and minimum (NASA Ozone Watch): NASA Ozone Watch: Antarctic ozone hole area (mean 7 September – 13 October) and minimum total ozone (21 September – 16 October), from TOMS, OMI and OMPS, gaps filled from MERRA, MERRA-2 and GEOS FP. · source page ↗
Licence : NASA data, public domain; credit NASA Ozone Watch · retrieved on Oct 25, 2026 · SHA-256 bdbd12e5a9c6…
Antarctic Oscillation (Southern Annular Mode) monthly index (NOAA CPC): NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Antarctic Oscillation index: projection of the 700 hPa height anomalies poleward of 20° S on the leading EOF (base 1979–2000). · source page ↗
Licence : U.S. Government work, public domain; cite NOAA CPC · retrieved on Oct 25, 2026 · SHA-256 95a13a252a4e…
Thompson et al. (2002): Thompson, D. W. J., & Solomon, S. (2002). Interpretation of recent Southern Hemisphere climate change. Science, 296(5569), 895–899. · doi:10.1126/science.1069270
Licence : Published literature; cited
Bandoro et al. (2014): Bandoro, J., Solomon, S., Donohoe, A., Thompson, D. W. J., & Santer, B. D. (2014). Influences of the Antarctic ozone hole on Southern Hemispheric summer climate change. Journal of Climate, 27(16), 6245–6264. · doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00698.1
Licence : Published literature; cited

Ozone hole and Southern Annular Mode A larger ozone hole, westerlies further south the following summer

What is linked, what is not