The register
Sun: cosmic rays rise as cycle 25 declines
pendingHypothesis: Solar cycle 25 is declining: the mean count rate of the Oulu neutron monitor over the year 2027 will exceed its mean from 2025-10-27 to 2026-10-26 (5,819.4 counts per minute).
Decision rule: Decision once the year 2027 is published (at least 300 days): difference of the means, block bootstrap (27 days) of both years. Confirmed if the rise is significant (p < 0.05, one-sided); refuted if a fall is; inconclusive otherwise, or if fewer than 300 days are published before the end of 2028.
- Reference mean: 5,819.4 counts/min; mean of 2027 so far: — (— %)
Registered on 2026-10-26 21:35:19 UTC (entry 0 of the register) · last value seen: oulu.nm.daily 2026-10-26
Seal: 73ec3e6a56412adf…
Tests: Solar cycle and cosmic rays · evaluated on 2026-10-26 21:35:19 UTC
Climate: global temperature follows El Niño
pendingHypothesis: Global temperature (GISTEMP) will follow El Niño with a 3-month lag: over the ten years of months published after 2026-09, the anomaly minus the linear trend of 1980-01 to 2026-09 will correlate positively with the Niño 3.4 index 3 months earlier (r = 0.46 over 1980-01–2026-09).
Decision rule: Checkpoints after 60 and 120 new months (5 and 10 years: the monthly series are so persistent that two years hold only a few independent values), one-sided threshold 0.025 at each (Bonferroni), effective size from the autocorrelation. Confirmed as soon as a checkpoint is significant; otherwise at 120 months: refuted if r ≤ 0, inconclusive if r > 0 without significance. Expected power if the link keeps its strength: 35 % at 5 years, 67 % at 10 years.
- r = 0.46 before registration (lag 3 months); over the months published since: r = —, effective size —; expected power 35 % at 5 years, 67 % at 10 years
Registered on 2026-10-26 21:35:19 UTC (entry 1 of the register) · last value seen: gistemp.global.monthly 2026-09, psl.nino34.anom.monthly 2026-09
Seal: 9cebd9f40a0bbbdf…
Tests: El Niño and global temperature · evaluated on 2026-10-26 21:35:19 UTC
Forecasts: belt electrons better than climatology
pendingHypothesis: The radiation belt electron (flux > 2 MeV above 1,000 pfu two days ahead) forecasts issued from 2026-10-26 to 2027-10-26 will beat climatology: positive Brier skill score over the closed windows (out-of-sample score on the past: 0.438).
Decision rule: Decision once every window has closed and been checked (at least 100 forecasts): 95 % block bootstrap interval of the score. Confirmed if the interval lies above 0, refuted if below, inconclusive if it contains 0 or if fewer than 100 forecasts could be checked.
- Skill over climatology so far: — — (score claimed on the past: 0.44)
Registered on 2026-10-26 21:35:19 UTC (entry 2 of the register) · last value seen: forecast_log 2026-10-26T21:35:19Z
Seal: b4a63fcc2f2cd575…
Tests: Solar wind and radiation-belt electrons · evaluated on 2026-10-26 21:35:19 UTC
Forecasts: geomagnetic storms better than climatology
pendingHypothesis: The geomagnetic storm (Kp ≥ 5 within three days) forecasts issued from 2026-10-26 to 2027-10-26 will beat climatology: positive Brier skill score over the closed windows (out-of-sample score on the past: 0.155).
Decision rule: Decision once every window has closed and been checked (at least 100 forecasts): 95 % block bootstrap interval of the score. Confirmed if the interval lies above 0, refuted if below, inconclusive if it contains 0 or if fewer than 100 forecasts could be checked.
- Skill over climatology so far: — — (score claimed on the past: 0.16)
Registered on 2026-10-26 21:35:19 UTC (entry 3 of the register) · last value seen: forecast_log 2026-10-26T21:35:19Z
Seal: 584dc293bef61217…
Tests: Forecast verification · evaluated on 2026-10-26 21:35:19 UTC
Mars: the pressure at Gale follows the CO₂ cycle
pendingHypothesis: At Gale, the daily mean pressure measured by Curiosity after 2026-08-25 will follow the seasonal CO₂ cycle predicted day by day by the model fitted on the previous 4718 sols, with a root-mean-square error of at most 8.6 Pa.
Decision rule: Checkpoints after 90, 180, 360 measured sols. Refuted as soon as, at a checkpoint, the root-mean-square error over the measured sols exceeds 8.6 Pa (1.5 times the out-of-sample error of 2019 to 2026, 5.7 Pa). Confirmed if it stays below at all three checkpoints. Inconclusive if fewer than 360 sols are published within two years of the end of the prediction.
- Root-mean-square error so far: — Pa (limit 8.6 Pa), bias — Pa
- Model fitted on 4,718 sols; out-of-sample error from 2019 to registration: 5.7 Pa; Mars24 Ls equal to the degree published by REMS for 86 % of the last 400 sols
Show the data as a table
Registered on 2026-10-26 21:35:19 UTC (entry 4 of the register) · last value seen: mars.msl.pressure.daily 2026-08-25
Seal: 4b1f1c7950e8462a…
Tests: Martian season and pressure · evaluated on 2026-10-26 21:35:19 UTC
Replication of the links matrix
The links matrix searches for links between all monthly series since 1979. To know which hold outside the sample that revealed them, the search is redone on 1979–2009 alone; each link found is then tested again on 2010 to date, at its lag and in its direction, without a new search. Each period is prepared on its own months (anomalies, filter, standardisation), so that no value of one enters the other.
Discovery over 1979-01 to 2009-12: 10 significant links among 249 pairs. Replication over 2010-01 to 2026-09:
| Link | Lag | r (discovery) | r (replication) | q | Power | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solar wind speed – Geomagnetism (ap) | simultaneous | 0.71 | 0.76 (n = 200) | 0.001 | 97 % | replicated |
| NAO – Arctic Oscillation (AO) | simultaneous | 0.61 | 0.61 (n = 201) | 0.001 | 100 % | replicated |
| CO₂ growth – Reefs (T anomaly) | CO₂ growth follows Reefs (T anomaly) by 4 months | 0.56 | 0.43 (n = 188) | 0.019 | 83 % | replicated |
| North Atlantic (AMO) – Global temperature | simultaneous | 0.49 | 0.49 (n = 201) | 0.006 | 77 % | replicated |
| Global temperature – Reefs (T anomaly) | Reefs (T anomaly) follows Global temperature by 1 months | 0.46 | 0.58 (n = 200) | 0.003 | 56 % | replicated |
| PDO – Arctic Oscillation (AO) | PDO follows Arctic Oscillation (AO) by 1 months | -0.31 | -0.14 (n = 201) | 0.022 | 100 % | replicated |
| Southern Annular Mode – Global temperature | simultaneous | -0.31 | -0.14 (n = 201) | 0.039 | 99 % | replicated |
| Global temperature – Snow (N. Hemisphere) | simultaneous | -0.29 | -0.31 (n = 201) | 0.001 | 94 % | replicated |
| Arctic Oscillation (AO) – Snow (N. Hemisphere) | simultaneous | -0.28 | -0.23 (n = 201) | 0.002 | 99 % | replicated |
| Arctic Oscillation (AO) – Sunspots | Arctic Oscillation (AO) follows Sunspots by 1 months | 0.21 | 0.06 (n = 201) | 0.101 | 100 % | not replicated |
Integrity of the log
Forecasts and hypotheses are written into two chains of sealed entries: each seal is the SHA-256 digest of the previous seal and of the entry’s canonical text. Every day, a short text naming the head of each chain is stamped in the Bitcoin blockchain by the public OpenTimestamps calendars. Anyone who downloaded an anchor can check that the log of that day existed in that form, independently of this site.
| Chain | Entries | Head (last seal) | State | Download |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast log | 56 (of which 55 sealed afterwards) | a1ad70c78aafbdb1… |
chain intact | JSON · CSV |
| Hypothesis register | 5 | 4b1f1c7950e8462a… |
chain intact | JSON |
Daily anchors (1)
- 2026-10-26 21:35:19 UTC ·
cb6c231595d900c7…· 3 calendars · anchor-20261026.txt · .ots
Check it yourself
The chain is checked in a few lines (Python below): recompute each seal from the previous one and the entry’s text (field record), and compare the head with an anchor’s. The anchor is checked with the reference OpenTimestamps client: download anchor-YYYYMMDD.txt and its .ots into the same folder, then ots verify. The Bitcoin stamp is confirmed a few hours after the anchor: ots upgrade then completes the proof.
import hashlib, json, urllib.request
chain = json.load(urllib.request.urlopen("https://observatory.lelama.digital/api/ledger/forecasts.json"))
seal = ""
for entry in chain["entries"]:
seal = hashlib.sha256((seal + "\n" + entry["record"]).encode()).hexdigest()
assert seal == entry["seal"], entry["id"]
print("chain intact, head", seal == chain["head"], seal)
# pip install opentimestamps-client, then, once Bitcoin has confirmed the stamp (a few hours):
# ots upgrade anchor-YYYYMMDD.txt.ots && ots verify anchor-YYYYMMDD.txt.otsRegistration. A hypothesis is registered the first time its data allow it: its specification (statement, prediction, last value seen of each series, checkpoints, rule) is written once into the sealed register and never recomputed. The verdict, when reached, is sealed after it.
The hypotheses. Mars: seasonal model with two harmonics of Ls and a linear drift (Hess et al., 1980), Ls of each future day from Mars24 (Allison & McEwen, 2000) with the REMS convention. Cosmic rays: difference of the Oulu annual means, block bootstrap of one solar rotation (Forbush, 1954). El Niño: correlation of the detrended anomaly with Niño 3.4 at the frozen lag (Trenberth et al., 2002), effective size of Bretherton et al. (1999), two checkpoints at the Bonferroni threshold. Forecasts: interval of the skill over climatology of the forecasts issued during one year.
Replication. Correlation at the lag and sign of the discovery, one-sided p-value from phase-randomised surrogates (Ebisuzaki, 1997), false discovery rate over the links tested (Benjamini & Hochberg, 1995). “Not replicated” when the test had at least an 80 % chance of finding the link again had it kept its discovery strength; “test too weak” otherwise. That power is overestimated: a correlation retained as the strongest of many pairs is inflated (Ioannidis, 2008).
- Nosek et al. (2018)
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Nosek, B. A., Ebersole, C. R., DeHaven, A. C., & Mellor, D. T. (2018). The preregistration revolution. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 115(11), 2600–2606.
· doi:10.1073/pnas.1708274114
Licence : Published literature; cited - Open Science Collaboration (2015)
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Open Science Collaboration (2015). Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science. Science, 349(6251), aac4716.
· doi:10.1126/science.aac4716
Licence : Published literature; cited - Ioannidis (2008)
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Ioannidis, J. P. A. (2008). Why most discovered true associations are inflated. Epidemiology, 19(5), 640–648.
· doi:10.1097/EDE.0b013e31818131e7
Licence : Published literature; cited - Benjamini et al. (1995)
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Benjamini, Y., & Hochberg, Y. (1995). Controlling the false discovery rate: a practical and powerful approach to multiple testing. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B, 57(1), 289–300.
· doi:10.1111/j.2517-6161.1995.tb02031.x
Licence : Published literature; cited - Ebisuzaki (1997)
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Ebisuzaki, W. (1997). A method to estimate the statistical significance of a correlation when the data are serially correlated. Journal of Climate, 10(9), 2147–2153.
· doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<2147:AMTETS>2.0.CO;2
Licence : Published literature; cited - Bretherton et al. (1999)
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Bretherton, C. S., Widmann, M., Dymnikov, V. P., Wallace, J. M., & Bladé, I. (1999). The effective number of spatial degrees of freedom of a time-varying field. Journal of Climate, 12(7), 1990–2009.
· doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<1990:TENOSD>2.0.CO;2
Licence : Published literature; cited - Allison et al. (2000)
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Allison, M., & McEwen, M. (2000). A post-Pathfinder evaluation of areocentric solar coordinates with improved timing recipes for Mars seasonal/diurnal climate studies. Planetary and Space Science, 48(2–3), 215–235.
· doi:10.1016/S0032-0633(99)00092-6
Licence : Published literature; cited - Hess et al. (1980)
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Hess, S. L., Henry, R. M., & Tillman, J. E. (1980). The annual cycle of pressure on Mars measured by Viking Landers 1 and 2. Geophysical Research Letters, 7(3), 197–200.
· doi:10.1029/GL007i003p00197
Licence : Published literature; cited - Forbush (1954)
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Forbush, S. E. (1954). World-wide cosmic ray variations, 1937–1952. Journal of Geophysical Research, 59(4), 525–542.
· doi:10.1029/JZ059i004p00525
Licence : Published literature; cited - Trenberth et al. (2002)
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Trenberth, K. E., Caron, J. M., Stepaniak, D. P., & Worley, S. (2002). Evolution of El Niño–Southern Oscillation and global atmospheric surface temperatures. Journal of Geophysical Research, 107(D8), 4065.
· doi:10.1029/2000JD000298
Licence : Published literature; cited