Tracks and forecasts on the globe
The north pole has left Canada for Siberia; the south pole drifts slowly off Adélie Land. Turn the globe, hover a point for its year and position, tick the layers to show; the circles hold 50 % (light) and 90 % (pink) of the past errors of the retained method at that horizon.
North magnetic pole
| Year | Position | Displacement | 50 % / 90 % radius | Spread of methods |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2030 | 84.65°, 124.9° | 175 km | 26 / 66 km | 25 km |
| 2035 | 83.52°, 116.7° | 331 km | 72 / 179 km | 69 km |
| 2040 | 82.41°, 111.3° | 474 km | 129 / 319 km | 127 km |
| 2050 | 80.32°, 104.7° | 731 km | 270 / 661 km | 303 km |
| Method | 5 yr | 10 yr | 20 yr | before 1990 | after 1990 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| extrapolated field | 27.9 / 64.8 | 83.1 / 187.1 | 218.2 / 541.8 | 100.7 | 183.7 |
| mean of the methods | 26.6 / 58.8 | 68.7 / 163.5 | 205.5 / 524.8 | 106.5 | 132.2 |
| constant velocity | 24.6 / 64.1 | 60.4 / 188.8 | 179.3 / 548.4 | 94.1 | 154.8 |
| extrapolated field with acceleration | 30 / 56.8 | 91.2 / 153.1 | 268.5 / 538.1 | 153.8 | 127.1 |
| constant acceleration | 45.1 / 86.7 | 105.6 / 218.2 | 278.5 / 626.3 | 130 | 248.6 |
In 2030, the official WMM2025 forecast is 15 km from this one.
South magnetic pole
| Year | Position | Displacement | 50 % / 90 % radius | Spread of methods |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2030 | -63.63°, 134.3° | 46 km | 9 / 32 km | 4 km |
| 2035 | -63.40°, 133.5° | 92 km | 23 / 80 km | 12 km |
| 2040 | -63.17°, 132.7° | 139 km | 40 / 136 km | 23 km |
| 2050 | -62.69°, 131.2° | 231 km | 81 / 267 km | 58 km |
| Method | 5 yr | 10 yr | 20 yr | before 1990 | after 1990 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| extrapolated field | 8.7 / 34.8 | 22.4 / 94.3 | 63 / 243.5 | 61.7 | 24.8 |
| mean of the methods | 8.4 / 28.4 | 20.7 / 73.8 | 66.5 / 316.2 | 65.4 | 20.1 |
| constant velocity | 8.7 / 28 | 21.6 / 79.7 | 61.1 / 205 | 57.7 | 23.6 |
| extrapolated field with acceleration | 7.4 / 28 | 22 / 120.3 | 122.1 / 532.2 | 104.5 | 23.2 |
| constant acceleration | 12.7 / 66.4 | 34.6 / 151.3 | 127.3 / 482 | 128.3 | 25.8 |
In 2030, the official WMM2025 forecast is 2.5 km from this one.
Show the data as a table
Show the data as a table
Dipole axis and magnetic moment
The dip pole (where the compass points down) follows the irregularities of the field near the pole; the dipole axis, the simplest part of the field, moves far more slowly: its boreal pole is in 2025 at 80.8° N, -72.8° E. The dipole moment went from 8.32 to 7.69 × 10²² A·m² between 1900 and 2025, i.e. -6.4 % per century (-6.3 % per century over the last 50 years). Extending this decline to zero makes no physical sense: the moment has varied like this before without reversing, and no model forecasts a reversal.
Show the data as a table
The rotation pole
The Earth’s rotation axis also moves relative to the crust, but by a few centimetres a year: since 2000 its mean pole has drifted by 13.5 ± 2.1 cm/yr towards 14° W (± 9°), driven by melting ice and water moving on the continents (Adhikari & Ivins, 2016; Deng et al., 2021). Measurements and fit: position of the poles. If this drift continued:
- 2050: about 3.2 m (± 1.0 m) from today
- 2100: about 10.0 m (± 3.1 m) from today
Poles. For every year since 1900, the dip pole (point where the horizontal component of the field vanishes) is computed from the Gauss coefficients of IGRF-14 (Alken et al., 2021), at sea level on the WGS84 ellipsoid, by Newton iterations; it differs from the one published by NOAA by a few hundredths of a kilometre in median.
Methods. Each uses only what was known in the starting year. Constant velocity: that of the last 5 years, along the great circle. Constant acceleration: parabola fitted over 15 years. Extrapolated field: Gauss coefficients extended with their change over the last 5 years, as the predictive part of IGRF and WMM, then the pole of the extended field. Field with acceleration: the change of the change over 10 years is added. Mean: average position of the velocity, field and field-with-acceleration methods.
Judging. Forecasts replayed from every year from 1950 to 2024, 1–25 years ahead; error = great-circle distance to the actual position. Method shown: smallest mean error at 5–20 years over all starting years (the ranking before and after 1990 is given to judge its stability). Cone: 50 % and 90 % quantiles of its past errors, fitted as a power law of the horizon.
- Alken et al. (2021)
-
Alken, P., Thébault, E., Beggan, C. D., Amit, H., Aubert, J., et al. (2021). International Geomagnetic Reference Field: the thirteenth generation. Earth, Planets and Space, 73, 49.
· doi:10.1186/s40623-020-01288-x
Licence : Published literature; cited - Livermore et al. (2020)
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Livermore, P. W., Finlay, C. C., & Bayliff, M. (2020). Recent north magnetic pole acceleration towards Siberia caused by flux lobe elongation. Nature Geoscience, 13(5), 387–391.
· doi:10.1038/s41561-020-0570-9
Licence : Published literature; cited - Chulliat et al. (2010)
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Chulliat, A., Hulot, G., & Newitt, L. R. (2010). Magnetic flux expulsion from the core as a possible cause of the unusually large acceleration of the north magnetic pole during the 1990s. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115, B07101.
· doi:10.1029/2009JB007143
Licence : Published literature; cited - Jackson et al. (2000)
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Jackson, A., Jonkers, A. R. T., & Walker, M. R. (2000). Four centuries of geomagnetic secular variation from historical records. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 358(1768), 957–990.
· doi:10.1098/rsta.2000.0569
Licence : Published literature; cited - Adhikari et al. (2016)
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Adhikari, S., & Ivins, E. R. (2016). Climate-driven polar motion: 2003–2015. Science Advances, 2(4), e1501693.
· doi:10.1126/sciadv.1501693
Licence : Published literature; cited - Deng et al. (2021)
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Deng, S., Liu, S., Mo, X., Jiang, L., & Bauer-Gottwein, P. (2021). Polar drift in the 1990s explained by terrestrial water storage changes. Geophysical Research Letters, 48(7), e2020GL092114.
· doi:10.1029/2020GL092114
Licence : Published literature; cited - IERS Bulletin A daily Earth orientation (USNO finals2000A.all)
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IERS Rapid Service/Prediction Centre (USNO), Bulletin A: polar motion, UT1−UTC and length of day since 1973, with predictions (finals2000A.all).
· source page ↗
Licence : U.S. Government work, public domain; cite IERS Bulletin A · retrieved on Oct 23, 2026 · SHA-256 95a61292c957…